Modelling earthquake and palaeotsunami damage scenarios on the eastern Mediterranean coast between ~300–551 CE: implications for the archaeological site of Porphyreon on the Phoenician coast of Lebanon

Abstract

The eastern Mediterranean has long been shaped by the impacts of natural disasters, notably tsunamis and earthquakes, with several major events recorded during the Late Roman and Byzantine periods (specifically between 300–551 CE). This study focuses on the ancient anchorage at Porphyreon on the Phoenician coast and integrates results from numerical earthquake modelling with contextual geological and archaeological field studies. Here, we explore the high potential of correlating diverse records to discern specific signatures of past earthquake and tsunami events. Our study modelled 42 fault zones located in the eastern Mediterranean to identify those capable of generating earthquakes strong enough to cause tsunami-driven flooding and destruction at Porphyreon. Of the 42 scenarios analysed, twelve magnitude 7 earthquakes could have potentially impacted the southern coast of Cyprus and the south-eastern Mediterranean coast in the Late Roman and Byzantine periods. Our analyses identify a fault system that could have posed a major threat to the Phoenician coast during the 551 CE earthquake, with calculated maximum tsunami wave heights exceeding 2.6 m. Our secondary outcome is the identification of faults that remain capable of generating tsunami waves today, posing a continuing threat to the coasts of Lebanon and Cyprus and their occupants.